VECM in cointegration analysis: How to chose the form of the deterministic terms from dataplots

by k.dkhk   Last Updated August 13, 2019 21:19 PM

Please have a look at the plot of 5 different time series $Y_t=(y_{1,t},y_{2,t},y_{3,t},y_{4,t},y_{5,t})$. I want to use R's urca package to perform cointegration analysis on $Y_t$ using the VECM (vector error corrected model): $$ Y_t = \Pi Y_{t-1} + \sum_{i=1}^k\Gamma_i\Delta Y_{t-i}+\Phi D_t +\epsilon_t $$

  • How should I determine the form of the VECM regarding the deterministic term?

  • Can I by "eyeball" method make a reasonable decision?

The 3 most common ways are implemented in urcaas: trend = none,const drift.

I am using these books:

  • Analysis of Integrated and Cointegrated Time Series with R by Pfaff
  • New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis by L├╝tkepohl

Neither of these books say anything about this topic but in there examples (I think) they use the "eyeball" methodenter image description here

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